S&P 500 SPX

Here is one of my alternate long-term Elliott Wave counts for the SPX that appears to be gaining in probabilty. As many of you know, I think the 90% U.S. stock market crash from 1929-1932 was a wave 2 at Supercyle degree. It only lasted 3 years. I’ve been thinking that Supercycle wave 3 ended in 2000, and that the 9-year expanded flat that followed (2000-2009) was a completed Supercycle wave 4. Alternatively, the above count projects that Supercycle wave 4 is still underway, and that the 2000-2009 expanded flat was just wave A of a larger sideways structure. I’ll have to admit that this count flows much easier than trying to force a 5-wave impulse onto the March 6 2009 though July 7 2011 period, as my main count does.

The count depicted above expects that primary (burgundy) wave W (ending Feb 18 2011) was a zigzag, and that primary (burgundy) wave X is in the process of carving out an expanded or running flat. Within that burgundy wave X, wave A black (ending September 22 2011) was an expanded flat, and wave B (black) of the flat is nearing completion as a relatively rare WXYXZ combination. If wave B black is 1.382 times the length wave A black was, the target for the top of this bull market would be 1432, which would be followed by a 5-wave impulse to the downside for wave C black and the end of burgundy X. Until wave B black has ended, an exact fibonacci target zone for the end of wave C black cannot be set. As an example though, if the SPX tops at 1432, the best target for the end of wave C black would be 1050, a 50% retracement of the March 2009 thru August/September 2012 structure. This 50% retracement target would have the S&P continuing to follow the 1968-1982 fractal, with the upcoming wave C black representing the 1976-1978 bear.

If this count is correct, wave B black will have lasted 1.618 times as long as wave A black did on September 5.

One slight problem with this count: If the movement since Sept 22 2011 is a WXYXZ, and that is the best way to count it in my opinion, it is a “mixed” combination, with wave W an expanded flat, Y a zigzag, and now Z another


CREDIT:  SID

SENSEX VIEWS

This chart was posted some time in Aug 2010  and it seems until now Sensex is following to the tee.  Will it  continue to do so ?

Credit:  tywo

NIFTY PERSPECTIVE

 See the monthly chart of Nifty Spot in ichimoku, Fib & Gann.

Nifty went into corrective mode from 2008 peak of Bull market and retraced just above 0.786 of Fibonacci Retracement. In the process of correction, it touched the cloud and advanced again further. 

Look at Gann Chart of 21 years. Nifty's correction just ended below 2 X 1 angle around 2250 in the year 2008.

Where Nifty right now placed ?

As per Gann methodology, if it closes above 5712 and when technical validation is completed, its headed to first target of 9320.

One finer point you will note, Nifty invariably bottoms out in monthly chart when stochastic oscillator (parameter 8 , 4, 3 ) gets into oversold and turns on upside. This you can notice in the Gann Chart.

Importantly, I observe many talk about Nifty's direction and targets without understanding its rhythemic move. Nifty as a broad market Index, doesn't break 3 months low so easily in an uptrend and if it does it, then market goes in for a big correction. In the same vein, when it crosses 3 months high after a substantial correction, then upmove is put in place. But aberration to 3 months breakout of high and low are minimal, which you can observe from charts.
 

 
Now lets combine all the tools and see if we could arrive at logical conclusion.

 Nifty is trading above ichimoku cloud and has made breakout of 3 months high with Stochastics of 8,4,3 is turningup from oversold region. All these are perfectly set for upmove.. but catch here is, from Gann methodology. Unless Nifty closes above 5712, there cannot be any substantial upmove. As market has already overrun on upside without a breather, probably could face stiff resistance between 5475 - 5575 which is again Gann level of resistance.

Once when Nifty closes above 5712 with technical validation in place, then Good days are ahead with a substantial move to 9320.

I have tried to explain you the advantage of using multiple tools to arrive for trading decisions than simply relying on a standalone methodology. 


CREDIT:  RameshRaja